Krasnodar, 28 May. Today our guest is Yuri Tkachenko, Director of the Regional centre for monitoring and forecast of natural and mancaused emergencies.
Q.: It was nearly twenty years ago when you became the main expert on the Kuban weather. Has it changed since then?
A.: Over the past twenty years, there has been a sustainable growth of dangerous weather phenomena. If in the 1990s there were 200 cases at the most that had caused significant losses to the society, by 2019 their number exceeded 500. And these negative consequences of the climatic changes have become much more significant that all positive moments they brought, like mild winters and warm weather.
Q.: What are the forecasts for the country and our region?
A.: According to the intergovernmental group of experts on climatic changes, rain precipitation will be more intensive, partly because there will be more moisture in the atmosphere. The absolute maximum daily precipitation that now happens once every twenty years, may be falling once a decade or even more often by the end of this century – which means that high water on the rivers would be registered more frequently. At the same time, there will be a trend towards a decrease in the frequency of precipitation events. These facts are giving rise to the following two conclusions that may seem contradicting each other at first sight: during the following decades, heavier downpours causing a higher number of floods will alternate more prolonged dry periods between the rainfalls. We can see this process in our region already.
Q.: It is considered that your field is experiencing staff shortages.
A.: And it is romantics who mostly come to work to us. It merely seems as if the time of inventions has passed on the Earth. Quite the contrary – with the development of modern technologies, we are becoming more aware that we know very little about Nature and that it still harbours lots of mysteries. This is why, those who seriously mean it will remain in our profession for a long while, and they will be successive.
Q.: One of the latest SMS warnings was about night frosts in the Kuban region. How hard will they affect our lives, judging from the current state of affairs?
A.: This year, we registered night frosts over the entire April – though, there was nothing extraordinary about that: there had been frosts in the Aprils of 2009, 2004 and 1987. But in May, night frosts were recorded in 1952 last time. However, we registered them even in June in 2003. Over the past sixty years, the recurrence of spring night and morning frosts that are dangerous for the agriculture have been one occasion for three to five years, on the average. In most cases, the minimum temperature was -2 – -3˚C in the air, and from -4 down to -7˚ C on the soil level. What was unique for this year were prolonged night frosts combined with the lack of rainfall, which is now negatively affecting the agriculture. As for the tourist industry, it is not affected as much by cold spring – the beginning of the summer will be warm: the temperature of the seawater has already risen to 17–19˚ C in most Black Sea resorts.
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