Krasnodar, 12 July – Yug Times. In the first six months of this year, the national warehousing property market accounted for 1.03 million square metres, of which 512,000 square metres were located outside Moscow and St. Petersburg. The figures were assessed and announced by NF Group analysts.
Experts predict that by the end of the year the volume of commissioning of warehousing property in Russia on the whole will reach a record 5.4 million square metres, with about 44% located outside the two capitals. According to Yekaterina Nogai, Head of Research and Analytics Department of IBC Real Estate, by the end of 2024 in Krasnodar region the volume of newly built warehouses may reach 170,000 square metres, which will correspond to the level of record-breaking 2023.
"Since the beginning of the year, 75,000 square metres have already been put into operation [in Krasnodar Krai]. Among them, the largest facilities were Wildberries (50,000 square metres) and Raevskaya Logopark (10,000 square metres). In the next two years, the current pace of new construction will stabilise and show a downward trend, with single large BTS-projects implemented for federal retailers being put into operation," explains the source.
Polina Afanasieva, Head of Research and Analytics at CMWP, expects that in 2024 the volume of commissioning of warehousing facilities in the Krasnodar region will approximate 90,000 square metres (classes A and B), which will be 28% lower than in 2023.
"The largest new construction project this year will be X5 Group's Novorossiysk 2 Distribution Centre with an area of 49,000 square metres. In 2025, the new constructions will increase by 5–10%, largely due to the expected commissioning of Class A warehouses as part of the Enem – Krasnodar Industrial Park project. By 2035, the increase in the volume of warehousing space in the region is expected at the level of 400,000 square metres, which is explained by the growing demand for Light Industrial format facilities," says the expert.
Experts note that in addition to the growing demand, the situation in the warehousing segment is also significantly influenced by the key rate of the Central Bank. Since the end of last year, it has been kept at the level of 16%, but most analysts agree that in July the regulator will raise the key rate because of the increasing inflation rate.
"The high key rate is putting significant pressure on warehousing property markets across Russia and in the Krasnodar region in particular. In total, the region currently has about 250,000 square metres under construction, which are expected to be commissioned in 2024–2026. The largest projects are being implemented for end-users in the BTS format, which largely helps to offset the high growth in the cost of debt financing. However, the dynamics of launching new speculative projects (facilities that are not built for a specific tenant – editor's note) is not significant," says Yekaterina Nogai.
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