Krasnodar, 24 July – Yug Times. Yuri Tkachenko, honorary worker of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service, director of the Regional Centre for Monitoring and Forecasting of Natural and Man-Induced Extraordinary Situations.
“Basic weather forecasts not always come true; their correctness equals to 90% on the average. Our well-known meteorologist Roman Vilfand once gave a very accurate and understandable comment on errors in weather forecasts. He said:
‘The atmosphere is chaotic by nature; it has the so-called uncertainties. They may be scrupulously described; we may forecast how they are going to develop - this is what we are dealing with. However, there is such notion as ‘butterfly effect’, described in the 1960s by the American mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. He gave the following example: there is a butterfly sitting on a flower in the unstable system. It flutters its wings, which gives rise to an even bigger instability, which in its turn gives rise to another one, and so on and so forth. Thus a minute fluttering of one butterfly may ruin all our calculations. This is why no weather forecast can be absolutely correct even for the nearest hours - never, by no means.’
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